Protection, not prediction
The stock pages audit existing value using current earnings, balance-sheet and cash-flow evidence. We do not publish a valuation range that requires an unverified story.
Value first. Price second.
THE MARKET'S MOOD — TODAY
Data details ↗RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
What the evidence supports—and what it does not.
The method favours visible rules, dated sources and incomplete answers over precise-looking estimates that the connected evidence cannot support.
Margin of safety, in figures
The page shows the connected earnings-yield comparison with its dated reference. It does not produce an intrinsic-value number when the required assumptions and sensitivity range are absent.
Never mingle
Business value and price timing are separate layers. A timing view can describe the market, but a price investment plan appears only after a complete value pass; technical checkpoints remain price context.
HOW A STOCK IS EVALUATED
Three questions, in this order.
Evidence-backed operating-company screen
Required inputs
The seven defensive criteria: size, current ratio and long-term debt vs working capital, ten years of positive earnings, twenty years of uninterrupted dividends, ≥ 33 % earnings growth over the decade, price ≤ 15× 3-year average EPS, and price ≤ 1.5× book value (or combined P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5).
Permitted output
A visible pass, fail or incomplete result. Banks, financial companies and utilities remain incomplete until their own sector-specific tests are connected.
Margin of safety — in figures, not words
Required inputs
Earning power (E/P on available per-share earnings) minus a dated sovereign yield from a configured official source.
Permitted output
The earnings yield, dated sovereign yield and spread. A valuation range is withheld until documented forward assumptions and sensitivities are connected.
Market mood — a temperature reading
Required inputs
Current valuation multiples and daily price structure. A historical percentile requires a stored point-in-time history.
Permitted output
Current context without claiming a historical percentile that is not available. Price structure never overrides a failed or incomplete value screen.
RISK — OUR DEFINITION
Price movement is not risk.
A serious investor does not lose money merely because the market price of holdings declines. We define risk as (a) forced sale in a drawdown, (b) deterioration of the company's underlying position, or (c) payment of an excessive price relative to intrinsic worth. Our TradeCard reports these three; a stop level, when one is permitted, is only a scenario control—not a complete definition of risk.
DIVERSIFICATION
Companion of the margin of safety.
There is a close logical connection between the concept of a safety margin and the principle of diversification. A single-stock page is research input, not a portfolio construction instruction.
RECOVERY ARITHMETIC
50 % lost demands 100 % gained.
Large losses require disproportionately larger gains to recover. The calculation is part of the method, while the main stock page stays focused on the decision at hand.
FORMULAS THAT WORK ONCE
No claim of always working.
Any approach to money-making that can be easily described and followed by a lot of people is by its terms too simple and too easy to last. Our screeners state their thresholds; they do not claim to always work.
SOURCE OF TRUTH
Every rule is written down.
The scorecards and thresholds above are implemented in app/lib/deep-dive/value-engine.ts. See the data policy for the production source plan and the research policy for the deep-dive boundaries.